The semi final of five state assembly elections before the Lok Sabha election is over now. After three days results will be out and the nation will know who is going to form government on those five states. The various exit poll of state elections are favoring Bhartiya Janta Party(BJP) . In MP, Chattisgarh and Rajasthan all polls are predicting a BJP win but in Delhi some polls are predicting a BJP win while some are predicting hung assembly . Some exit polls are indicating that Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP can spoil the party for BJP.
Let’s look at the permutation combination of Delhi
Clear Majority to BJP- The best for BJP
If BJP can manage to win 35 seats there , they are going to form the government in Delhi after 15 years and Dr. Harsha Vardhan is going to be the Chief Minister . This is almost certain when BJP gets majority.
No Majority to BJP and AAP is King maker
AAP wins 15-20 seats: In this situation the best for AAP will be to support Congress or BJP. If they decide to stay out, there will be reelection and this will benefit BJP the most. Because being the number one chances for BJP getting the more love of voters will be very high. As people will want to vote for the party who have higher chances of forming the government. This will be very damaging for AAP, and they will lose their seats, so I don’t think they will prefer reelection in this situation.
AAP Gets 25-30 seats: AAP will only prefer relection when they are at number two and very close to BJP. Only in that situation they will prefer relection with the hope of increasing the seats.
BJP and AAP form government
The chances of this happening are nearly zero. I believe AAP will prefer to support congress than BJP on the ground of secularism. If AAP supports BJP, then this will have some positive impact for congress in the Loksabha election. As they can then accuse AAP of being the B team of BJP and can get the votes of the AAP supports in the Lok Sabha election. They can also regain the minority votes in that situation.
Congress and AAP form government
Chances of AAP and Congress alliance are quite good. If that happens this is going to be very positive for BJP in the 2014 Loksabha election. BJP will try to label AAP as Congress B team and as there is already anti congress wave this will increase the vote share of BJP very much. The survey also says that 40% AAP voters are Modi fans, so AAP and Congress alliance are going to help BJP in the long run. It will be very difficult for AAP to run smooth government with congress and it will be next to impossible to fulfill the populist promises. This will also have negative impact on AAP voters. The life of this government will be quite short.
Though AAP has said that they won’t join hands with either BJP or Congress , but nothing is sure in politics. Alliance with congress has a better probability on the grounds of secularism. Re-elections wont benefit them if they get only around 15 seats this time.